Black Monday US stocks melted for the second time, can it bottom out on Tuesday?

“Black Monday” US stocks melted for the second time, can it bottom out on Tuesday?
Affected by the global spread of the new crown epidemic, US stocks fell more than 10% in a week from February 24 to 28, 2020.During the seventy years of terrorism, there have been only four single-week declines of more than 10%. They were Black Monday in 1987, the bursting of the Kewang bubble in 2000, the “9.11” incident in 2001 and the financial crisis in 2008.On March 9, the price of crude oil plummeted, and the three major US stock indexes began to plunge. Among them, the Dow fell nearly 1,900 points, triggering a fuse mechanism and temporarily suspended for 15 minutes. This is the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.In the 32 years since the implementation of the fuse mechanism in the US stock market, it has actually only triggered a fuse once: on October 27, 1997, the Dow Jones Industrial Index plunged by 7.18%, closed at 7161.15 points, the largest decline since 1915.As one of the oldest stock market indexes in the world, the Dow Jones Industrial Index has a history of 136 years. has sorted out the reasons why the Dow Jones Industrial Index has fallen sharply in the past 40 years, to see the ups and downs of the US stock market and world economy for 40 years.

Lippi, China’s latest 25-man roster, leads his team against Qatar on the 15th

Lippi, China’s latest 25-man roster, leads his team against Qatar on the 15th
The Chinese Football Association announced the latest national football training list, which is the first national football roster under Lippi.The national football team will usher in the top 12 match against Qatar in Kunming on November 15.  Lippi list is as follows: Guangzhou Evergrande: Feng Xiaoting, Mei Fang, Zhang Linpeng, Huang Bowen, Zheng Zhi, Gao Lin, Li Xuepeng Jiangsu Suning: Li Ang, Wu Xi Shanghai Shanggang: Wu Lei, Yu Hai, Cai Huikang, Yan Junling, Fu Huan Shandong Luneng:Hao Junmin, Zhao Mingjian, Wang Dalei Beijing Guoan: Yu Dabao, Zhang Xizhe, Zhang Chengdong, Yang Zhi Shanghai Shenhua: Cao Yunding Guangzhou R&F: Jiang Zhipeng Tianjin Quanjian: Sun Kehejia Waiters: Zhang Yuning Extended Reading: National Football World Championships Preliminaries Top 12 Schedule Timetable

Youngor (600177): Steady Growth of Multi-Business Group, Clothing Recovery, Return to Rise Channel

Youngor (600177): Steady Growth of Multi-Business Group, Clothing Recovery, Return to Rise Channel
This report reads: As a multi-segment business group, the company has expanded its clothing sales share, increased store expansion efficiency, and achieved solid performance in the real estate sector. For the first time, it has given a cautious increase rating. Investment points: The first coverage gives a cautious overweight rating: EPS is expected to be 0 in 2019-2021.84/0.93/1.02 yuan, an annual increase of 14%, 11%, 10%. With reference to the valuation of peer-brand clothing companies and real estate companies, the company is given a target price of 7.09 yuan, corresponding to about 8 times PE in 2019. Multi-segment business group, with solid real estate sales and rising apparel share.The company owns a number of business sectors including clothing, real estate and financial investment.Among them, the existing real estate projects sold well, and the overall pre-sale ratio reached 82.89% of the sales are on schedule.The project has abundant reserves, widening the geographical coverage, and ensuring long-term sustainable development.The initial scale of apparel sales has expanded, and the proportion has begun to rise, and the focus of business has gradually shifted. Expanding stores to improve store efficiency, consolidating the advantages of direct sales channels, and significantly improving clothing margins.The company’s offline stores 南京夜网论坛 resumed growth, with a net increase of 76 to 3,101 stores in 2018.Thanks to the strategy of large stores, the store area has expanded and the average store area has reached 132.With an area of 8 square meters, the efficiency of the store has increased simultaneously. In 2018, the average store sales reached 164.960,000 yuan, single store quality continued to optimize.The offline stores are mainly based on direct sales channels. In 2018, the number of direct sales stores further increased to 2,896, with a direct sales ratio of 93.39%, an increase of 3 per year.24pct, channel card position advantage is significant.The construction of digital stores accelerated, online and offline connections were opened, and full-channel O2O operations were launched.The intelligent production line was put into operation, the production efficiency was increased by 25%, the large-scale production cycle was shortened to 32 days, and the rapid response system and supply chain efficiency were greatly improved.Cultivate new-generation customers, the number of full-brand members is rising rapidly, global drainage, precision marketing, and a full recovery of clothing business. Catalysts: The growth of offline clothing stores, the implementation of big store strategies, and improved store efficiency. Risk warning: clothing consumption, real estate sales, investment returns are less than expected.

Depth-Company-Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233): Polyester filament leader participates in the integrated industrial chain of Zhejiang Petrochemical Industry

Depth * Company * Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233): Polyester filament leader participates in the integrated industrial chain of Zhejiang Petrochemical Industry

The company is a domestic leader in polyester filaments, with thousands of product series that can meet market demand.

On the basis of solidifying the polyester filament industry, the company actively participated in the Zhejiang Petrochemical Project and opened up the PX-PTA-polyester-spinning industry chain.

The company’s main product, the polyester filament competition pattern, has been continuously optimized, and its participation in the Zhejiang Petrochemical Project has brought about deterministic growth. For the first time, it has given a Buy rating.

The main point of the support level is the leading polyester filament company.

According to the company’s annual report, the company has a capacity of about 570 tons / year of polyester filament and a matching capacity of 400 tons / year of PTA. The polyester filament has achieved the first production and sales volume in the domestic market for more than ten years, and the domestic city accounts for more than 16%International market share reached 11%.

With the industry’s economic climate rebounding significantly and prices rising, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother reached 21 in 2018.

20 ppm, an increase of 20 per year.


The competition pattern improved, and the profit of the polyester filament leader maintained a high level.

According to China Fiber Net, the apparent domestic consumption of polyester filament in 2018 was 3,078.

17 is the earliest, with a substantial short-term growth of 11.


Benefiting from the recovery of the downstream textile and apparel industry, and the increase in the proportion of filaments in apparel fabric raw materials, demand for polyester 南京夜网论坛 filaments has shown steady growth.

On the supply side, the annual polyester filament production capacity in 2018 was 3,862 tons / year, an increase of 7 per year.

52%. In the future, more production capacity will be concentrated in several large enterprises. With the closure and transfer of backward production capacity, the industry concentration will increase, and the profitability of leading enterprises will remain high.

PTA supply and demand maintained balance, and profitability was restored.

PTA has experienced a 4-year downturn since 2014, and the capacity expansion has shifted significantly.

According to the statistics of China Fiber Network, the nominal capacity of PTA in 2018 was 5,132 tons / year, and the capacity utilization rate was increased to 78.


Considering the recovery of downstream polyester 杭州夜网论坛 capacity, PTA demand will continue to improve.

The company’s PTA is basically self-sufficient, effectively reducing the risk of price fluctuations.

The company’s polyester filament production capacity continues to expand and integrates an integrated industrial chain.

The company started the polyester filament production expansion plan. Jiaxing Petrochemical, Hengrui Phase III, Hengbang Phase III, and Heng Teng Phase III projects have been put into operation. It is estimated that the total production capacity in the first half of 2019 will reach 600 tons.

In addition, the company took a stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical and entered the upstream of petrochemicals.

ZPEC is under construction for a total of 4,000 tons / year of refining and 800 tons / year of PX projects. By then, the company will achieve partial self-sufficiency in PX raw materials and accelerate the development of a complete industrial chain.

The main risks facing the rating are 1. environmental protection risks; 2. project extension risks; 3. macroeconomic downside risks.

It is estimated that the expected earnings for 2019-2021 will be 1.

36 yuan, 1.

61 yuan, 1.

94 yuan, the corresponding PE is 10 respectively.

2 times, 8.

6 times, 7.

1 times.

The first coverage gives a BUY rating.

Taoli Bakery (603866) Company Dynamic Comment: Performance Meets Predictions Steady Advancement of Nationalization

Taoli Bakery (603866) Company Dynamic Comment: Performance Meets Predictions Steady Advancement of Nationalization

Core point 成都桑拿网 of view: Taoli Bread released its 19-year interim report and achieved total operating income of 25 in 1H19.

6 trillion, an increase of 18 in ten years.

1%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

04 trillion, an increase of 15 in ten years.

5%; budget benefit 0.

46 yuan.

It is estimated that the company achieved total operating revenue of 14 in 2Q19.

2 trillion, an increase of 20 in ten years.

2%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

8.3 billion, an increase of 17 in ten years.

9%; budget benefit 0.

2 yuan.

  Investment points: 2Q19 revenue, net profit growth in line with performance forecast.

Net profit in the second quarter of 19 increased by 17 in ten years.

9%, mainly from the revenue increase of 20 in ten years.


  New and star products performed better, the new and old markets continued to develop strength, and revenue grew steadily.

The company’s revenue has grown steadily. From the point of view of products, the star products are mature, and the milk bars and other products have maintained steady growth.

From a regional perspective: (1) Intensive cultivation of mature markets, continued to improve channel coverage and daily distribution rate, mature markets maintain stable growth, such as 1H19 Northeast market increased by 15

5%, the North China market increased by 19.

3%, the Southwest market increased by 12 in 1H19 after adjustment.

9%; (2) Actively explore new markets in East and South China and expand the number of terminals.

At present, the company has reached cooperation with BBK, Renrenle and other supermarket chains in the south. Overlapping 2Q19 exacerbates the impact of market activities. The new market in 1H19 grew faster, such as the South China market, the growth rate in 1H19 reached 38.


In the future, new and old markets will transform production capacity, further improve channel layout, and have both development potential.

It is estimated that the revenue growth rate in 19 years will be about 15-20%.

  Expenses during the period of horse racing, net profit growth was lower than income growth.

Gross profit margin for the second quarter of 19 was 39.

9%, an increase of 0 a year.

2pct, the main reasons are: (1) the company continues to upgrade its product structure and launch similar new products such as yolk wafers; (2) the company has now established production bases in 17 regions, expanding its transmission channels, maximizing production capacity, and diluting with increased scale effectscost.

The main reason why the growth rate of net profit in the second quarter of 19 was lower than the growth rate of revenue.

8pct to 21.


1H19 store expenses increased by 88 in ten years.

1%, product distribution costs increased by 19 in ten years.


The company is still in a period of horse racing, and it still needs a lot of investment to open up new market channels and build distribution and sales teams.

Expenses are expected to remain high in 19 years, and net profit growth is about 15-17%.  After the convertible bonds are approved, the production capacity will continue to expand, and the nationalization strategy will be steadily advanced.

(1) In terms of production capacity, the company currently plans to build bases in Wuhan, Shenyang, Shandong, and Jiangsu, with a total of 12.

87 calories.

And after the convertible bonds are approved, the company can further improve its capacity layout in East China and Southwest.

  In addition, the establishment of Xinjiang Taoli and capital increase in Shandong Taoli will also help the company explore the Northwest and East China markets.

  (2) In terms of channels, the company actively expanded channels by adopting direct sales and parallel distribution methods. In 1H19, retail terminals nationwide gained 15% to over 230,000.

At present, the short-guarantee bread industry is currently in the phase of increasing volume, easy to expand, product positioning audience, central scale + wholesale model with strong scale advantages will benefit more; and the core competitive advantage of Taoli adopting this model is solid, future production capacity and terminal salesThe network layout is perfect, sustainable and stable growth, and huge development potential.

  Profit forecast and investment advice: EPS are expected to be 1 in 19-21.


38, 1.

68 yuan, an increase of 16 a year.

5%, 21.

5%, 21.

6%, the PE corresponding to the latest closing price is 41, 34, 28 times.

  The short-term insurance leader Taoli has significant scale advantages, strong channel penetration, and efficient logistics. It is still in the golden period under national expansion and maintains a “recommended” rating.

  Risk warning: Nationalization is not up to expectations, risks of rising raw material prices, food safety incidents.

Ping An Bank (000001) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Performance Maintains High Growth and Steady Progress

Ping An Bank (000001) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Performance Maintains High Growth and Steady Progress

The company’s good strategy of negative capital drive revenue and profit continue to improve, the overall risk is stable, the retail transformation has achieved significant, and future growth is still expected.

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Event: Ping An Bank’s operating income and net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 2019 increased further18.

8% and 15.

5%, with an expected average ROE of 12.

85% (annualized), the non-performing loan ratio remained at 1.


Earnings continued to grow at a high rate, generally in line with expectations.

In the first three quarters, the net profit attributable to the mother was +15 for ten years.

5% (+15 in the first half).


Highest income continued to perform well (+18 in the first three quarter quarters).

8%, +18 in the first half.

5%), of which net interest and net fee continued to increase due to the low base last year; gradual provisioning and maintenance remained stable (at least +21 in asset impairment losses in the first three quarters).

9%, + 22% in the first half).

In the third quarter, asset expansion accelerated slightly and the structure became more stable.

The company’s total assets in Q3 were +3 from the previous quarter.

26% (Q1 / Q2 +3 respectively.

26% / 1.

72%): 1) Credit retail credit placement strategy is more robust. In the third quarter, the number of new loans was 69.3 billion. Retail is still a strategic direction (48.4 billion new). The increase in structure is mainly contributed by “other” personal loans (32.7 billion), mainly licensed mortgage loans, small consumer loans and other guaranteed or pledged loans), while credit cards have improved (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 increased by 19 billion / 18.7 billion / 80 billion).Auto lending resumed a slight net increase, and corporate loans also resumed growth (an increase of 20.9 billion).

2) Financial investment was more active than in the second quarter, with an increase of 69.3 billion in the third quarter, which was thought to be due to the increase in bonds and interbank investment.

The margin of loan pricing has weakened, driving the interest rate margin to decrease slightly from the previous quarter.

The company disclosed the first three quarters of net interest margin2.

62%, of which 2 in the third quarter.

62% (Q1 / Q2 is 2.

53% / 2.

71%), mainly due to the decline in the rate of return on assets (Q3 interest-earning asset yield / interest-bearing resistance interest payment rate QoQ Q2 decreased by 10BPs / 2BPs respectively).

1) Return on assets: The decline in loan interest rates is the main reason (down 19BPs month-on-month). The loan rate on public loans has dropped significantly, which is believed to be related to weak corporate financing needs. The personal loan is due to the structural adjustment and the addition of credit cards has decreased.At the same time, some mortgage loans have been 重庆耍耍网 increased, resulting in lower overall yields; 2) The interest rate on interest payments has mainly benefited from the decline in the cost of interbank certificates of deposit, which can still make a positive contribution to changes in net interest margin.

The growth rate of non-interest income decreased from the first half of the year, which was related to the adjustment of accounting standards.

The first three quarters of non-interest income are +14 per year.

2% (+22 in the first half of the year.

1%), it is speculated that the growth rate of other non-interest income in Q3 this year has slowed down compared with the first half of the year due to high bases such as investment income resulting from the conversion of accounting standards last year.

However, the company’s net fee income has increased significantly (first half / first three quarters +2).

5% / + 17.

4%). The decrease was a low base last year. The transformation should also see the positive contribution of the company’s continued transformation of retail transformation. In particular, the wealth management business continued to strengthen, and retail customers’ AUM increased by 6 from the previous quarter.

At 7%, AUMs of private customers meeting standards increased by 9 from the previous month.


Asset quality was generally stable, and provision levels were further consolidated.The Q3 company’s NPL ratio was flat month-on-month (1.

68%), the non-performing balance increased by 1.2 billion, which was longer than the previous two quarters (Q1 / Q2 increased by 5.

100 million / -4.

900 million), while the attention rate and overdue 90 + / bad deviation degree continued to decline Q2 (down 9BPs / 6 respectively.

8 pieces to 2.

39% / about 87%), which may indicate that the company increased the intensity of adverse exposure and disposal in the third quarter, and achieved the overall stability of the book risk data.

The risks of classified loans declined steadily. The NPL ratio of mortgages and auto loans increased slightly from the previous month but remained at a relatively high level, while the NPL ratios of credit cards, new loans and other personal loans declined.

Provisions continued to be actively responded to, and Q3’s provisioning provisions remained positive (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 single-quarter asset impairment losses of 12.9 billion / 14.3 billion / 13.8 billion), and the provision coverage ratio rose to 186.

18% (+3 MoM).


Risk factors: stalling macroeconomic growth; worse-than-expected retail loan quality deterioration.

Investment suggestion: The company’s good strategy of negative capital deployment drives the income and profit to continue to improve, the overall risk is stable, the retail transformation has achieved significant, and future growth is still expected.

Slightly raised the rapid forecast for the growth of net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of the parent company in 2019/20 to 16.

18% / 16.

8% (previous forecast 15).

69% / 15.

49%), while taking into account the increase in equity after conversion of convertible bonds, the EPS forecast is lowered to 1.


67 yuan (previous forecast 1).


86 yuan), currently expected to correspond to January 2019.


Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) semi-annual report comment: Interim report meets expectations Brunei project is about to enter the commercial operation stage

Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) semi-annual report comment: Interim 厦门夜网 report meets expectations Brunei project is about to enter the commercial operation stage

19H1 achieved net profit of 12.

7.7 billion, second-quarter profit Short-term first quarter The company released its 2019 Interim Report, which stated that the company achieved operating income of 417.

29 ppm, at least -3.

55%, mainly due to a slight reduction in trade scale; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

7.7 billion, +2 a year.

94% (4 in the first quarter.

2.3 billion, 8 in the second quarter.

5.3 billion).

The PTA reported strong profitability. As for the improved PTA of polyester, the company participated in the holding of PTA output of 1350 tons per year. The report involved the Yisheng three plants (Zhejiang Yisheng, Yisheng Dahua and Hainan Yisheng) respectively achieving net profit7.

2.5 billion, 4.

$ 8.9 billion and 3.

77 trillion, +3 in the same period of the previous 18 years.

4 billion, +2.

700 million and +1.

600 million in terms of spreads (PTA-0.

65PX) Q1 / Q2 are 840/1273 yuan / ton, respectively. The strong profit of PTA conversion in the second quarter is the leader in the conversion of Q2 performance to Q1.

In terms of polyester, the company has a polyester filament production capacity of 510 tons / year and a polyester staple fiber production capacity of 80 tons / year. There are 7 subsidiaries that report that the main revenue business is polyester, and the total net profit is realized.

82 trillion tons.

Among them, Hengyi Limited achieved a net profit of -0.

21 trillion, net profit for the same period in 20184.

2.8 billion, the reason is that Hengyi Co., Ltd. is a first-level subsidiary and has undertaken the necessary financial expenses; Hengyi polymer, Hengyi High-tech net profit of 0.


08 million yuan, an improvement over the same period in 18 (net profit in 18H1 0.


8.4 billion); Jiaxing Yipeng (consolidated in 18H2), Taicang Yifeng (consolidated in 18H2), Shuangtuo New Material (consolidated in 18H2) and Hangzhou Yichang (consolidated in 19H1) achieved net profit of 0.




58 ppm; overall, polyester benefits have improved compared to the same period in 18, because the report merges PTA into a strong squeeze on downstream benefits.

As for other businesses, it reported that sustainable Hengyi Caprolactam achieved a net profit of zero.

96 trillion, 18H1 is 2.

41 ppm, 19H1 caprolactam business profit is at a historically moderate level; Zhejiang Commercial Bank net profit is 76.

24 billion, 18H1 is 65.

09 million yuan, the bank’s investment income increased slightly.

The Brunei project has been transferred to a full test run. The most important aspect of commercial operation companies at this stage is the progress of the Brunei refining and chemical project. According to the Interim Report, the progress of the Brunei project has been completed by 99%, and all units have been transferred to the linkage.In the test phase, the project is expected to be gradually implemented after the test to achieve full load production and enter the commercial operation phase.

The technical advantages of the project (residual oil processing using flexible coking process, liquid diesel hydrogenation technology), business advantages 北京夜生活网 (convenient import of crude oil, refined oil products sold to Southeast Asian markets, chemical products supporting digestion) and policy advantages (reduction and reduction) are obvious, expectedBetter economic efficiency.

The company’s profit forecast, forecast, and investment rating overseas launches integrated refinery and chemical integration projects in various aspects. The company has overcome difficulties and the Brunei project has achieved satisfactory progress. We maintain the report for the 19/20/21 project capacity utilizationThe rates are 33% / 90% / 90% assuming 19/20/21 net profit of 39.


10,000 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: PX-PTA-polyester industry chain profit growth, Brunei project progress is gradually expected

Eight factors make it easier for the elderly to follow suit

Eight factors make it easier for the elderly to follow suit
【现实挑战】跌倒已经成了老年人最常见意外受伤的因素【应对策略】骨科专家分析易导致老人跌倒的8个因素 教你有的放矢地减少跌倒的风险经常有朋友向我咨询:“老妈昨天I fell and went to the hospital to take a picture and diagnose a hip fracture. Is surgery necessary?”” The old man was sitting on a fart squatting the day before yesterday, and his lumbar spine was compressed and fractured.”At the time of the consultation, I encountered an old lady in her seventies holding her wrist to see the doctor.She mounted a chair with a roller at home and went to the top cabinet to find something. She accidentally fell down and broke her wrist.This is a “warrior” old comrade who challenges risks irrationally.Falls have become the most common cause of accidental injuries in the elderly, and bone fractures are often associated with osteoporosis, and some injuries have very serious consequences.According to statistics, falls are the second leading cause of death after traffic accidents worldwide, and they are also the leading cause of personal injury, especially to the elderly.More and more older people are afraid of falling, reducing their daily and social activities.This leads to further physical decline, depression, social isolation and helplessness.When you exercise too little, people become weak, which increases their chance of falling.Let’s take a look at the eight factors that can easily lead the elderly to fall, and reduce the risk of falling in a targeted manner.Accidents The most common cause of falls is accidents.Inadvertently slipping or tripping when walking or going up and down stairs, wearing inappropriate shoes, dark surroundings, potholes, icy or watery roads, etc.Studies show that women are more likely to fall than men at all ages.Therefore, in windy, rainy and snowy days, the elderly should not go out. Safety is always the first priority.Age Older people are more likely to be injured by falls than younger ones.With the increase of age, the elderly lose vision, hearing, proprioceptive and balance control ability, muscle strength and nerve coordination decline, and the ability to respond to stress becomes worse. If there are cognitive problems, the risk of falling will increase.After 50 years of age, bone mass is lost at a rate of 1% per year, and women lose more quickly.At the age of 80, the whole body muscle is reduced by about 1/4 to half when young.The incidence of osteoarthritis between the ages of 60 and 65 is 53%, and 20% of them have restricted mobility.More than half of those aged 80 have cataracts or have had cataract surgery.At the age of 85, 40% of the elderly met the medical dementia standards.疾病 很多疾病都会影响人的平衡能力,比如引起视力减退的各种眼科疾病(白内障),内耳前庭疾病(耳石症、美尼尔症),颈腰椎管狭窄,心脑血管疾病、高血压病, Diabetes (orthostatic hypotension, hypoglycemia, diabetic foot), neurological disease (Parkinson), cognitive impairment (dementia), osteoarthritis (knee, hip joint), plantar fasciitis, ballPain, bunions, etc.Hearing loss Researchers at the University of Hopkins in the United States have found that even with only 25 decibels of mild hearing loss, the chance of falling will triple, and for every 10 decibels lost, the chance of falling will increase by 1.4 times.Hearing loss makes older people’s awareness of environmental judgment worse, and they are prone to fall. In addition, after hearing loss, the brain will occupy the cognitive resources that maintain balance and gait due to overcompensation, resulting in impaired balance ability.Medications The side effects of many medications can cause balance disorders, such as sleep aids, sedatives, antidepressants, and antihypertensive drugs can also cause dizziness (hypotension).Muscle relaxants and opioid analgesics for 无锡桑拿网 cervical and lumbar spondylosis can cause dizziness and decreased coordination.The elderly may suffer from various diseases by taking multiple drugs orally. Due to the slowing of the metabolic rate and the continuous superimposition of various drugs, it may cause the elderly to have a disordered balance function.Environment Most elderly people fall a lot at home.A messy home with hidden dangers of falls everywhere.The floor is too smooth, water stains are not wiped off in time, the carpet is not fixed, the drawer is pulled open and not pushed back, etc., all increase the risk of falling.Lighting Many older people are associated with vision loss, but good lighting can reduce this risk.Insufficient light and dim environment, even if your eyesight is normal, you may fall.However, too strong sunlight and too bright environment are not good for the elderly, too much glare may cause dizziness.Clothing and shoes Clothes that are too tight may appear slim, but they don’t dissipate heat well enough, impede blood flow, and limit mobility.Loose clothes, although comfortable, can easily get caught or caught by doors, furniture, or windows.This all increases the risk of falls for older people.Elderly people who are prone to fall avoid wearing too loose shoes and slippery soles. In addition, high-heeled shoes and flip-flops are also rarely worn.If the feet become better, it is best to wear shoes with arch support; if the prolonged feet are severe, pain when walking, and you can’t recover for a long time, consider making a professional orthopedic insole.Text / Ju Zhaohui (Beijing Jishuitan Hospital)

China Life (601628): Switching logic is gradually fulfilling the track change is just around the corner

China Life (601628): Switching logic is gradually fulfilling the track change is just around the corner

The company disclosed the third quarter report for 2019, which is expected to achieve 6,240 operating income.

24 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

4%; net profit attributable to mother 577.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 190 in ten years.



03 yuan, an annual increase of 193.

1%; ROE (annualized) 16.

66%, an increase of 10 per year.

53 points.

Opinions: The reported company’s net profit attributable to its mother has greatly increased in three points: 1.

Growth in premium income (6.

1%); 2.

Growth in investment income (76.

1%); 3.

One-time effects of tax cuts (tax cut 51.

5.4 billion).

Three major changes in reported corporate debt investments: 1.

The resistance side opened the door and made great achievements, and the value conversion effect in the second and third quarters exceeded expectations.

In the early stage, the company started with the annuity product Xinxiang Jinsheng A / B, and realized rapid growth in premiums.

Improving the quality of impulse-saving products at the same time, and increasing the value rate by lengthening the product life, will help ensure that the overall overall period and value rate are relatively stable, laying a solid foundation for the transition.

Since March, the focus of sales has shifted to long-term protection products. In order to ensure the smooth progress of the transition, the company continued to expand its agent team against the trend, and increased by another 5 months before the end of the third quarter and 18 months before the end of 2018 to 2020.年 开门红积蓄力量。
At the same time of increasing staff, the company strictly controlled the entrance of agents, increased the recruitment of high-education agents in cities and towns, and improved the overall quality of agents.

The gradual improvement of the post-employee position training and supporting assessment and incentive mechanism continues to improve the weightlifting rate and productivity of agents, and effectively reduce the replacement ratio of high-capacity agents.

From the perspective of the premium structure, under the plan to increase the sales of guaranteed products, traditional life insurance also “improves quality” and continues to reduce the pressure to increase the scale of non-profit products (the proportion is less than 0).

4%), the core resources continue to shift to long-term delivery products.


Benefit from the report that the potential equity market is picking up and investment income is increasing.

While appropriately increasing the scale and proportion of the allocation of equity assets, and increasing the allocation of blue chips with high dividends and low interest rates, the company has continued to increase the ultra-long-term government bonds for more than 30 years in response to the downward environment of refunds.And by investing in high-grade non-standard assets and high-quality real estate and other long-term investment products that can bring long-term stable cash flow, reduce the variability of the return on investment portfolios, more effectively resist market risks, and implement the new accounting standards in advance.

From a management perspective, the organizational structure adjustment of the company’s investment management center is nearing completion. It will establish a market-oriented rank sequence and establish a 深圳桑拿网 comprehensive performance evaluation mechanism and a competitive performance incentive mechanism. It will strengthen the management of investment and research personnel, improve efficiency and overall investment capacity.Have a positive impact.


In the report, the company fully launched the three-year operation of “Science and Technology National Life”, using financial technology to empower the entire value chain of insurance.

Science and technology elements will play a significant role in the management of agent teams, agent entry control and quality and efficiency.

It can also achieve breakthroughs in customer service, product collaborative promotion, big data processing, improving insurance claims efficiency, scenarios and ecological construction, and enhancing the comprehensive competitiveness of the main insurance industry.

Investment suggestion: Since the second half of 2018, the company has implemented a number of reforms to gradually inject vitality into its operations, and these core indicators have improved significantly.

After the technology empowers the main business, the company’s comprehensive strength is expected to further improve.

As the Matthew effect in the insurance industry becomes more significant, the company’s competitive advantage will continue to expand.

Looking forward to 2020, the company will have an early layout and its main products are highly competitive in the current market. The product design is humanized and the audience is wider.It is expected that China Life’s “big start” in 2020 is a high probability event.

We are firmly optimistic about the company’s development prospects, which will translate into continuous advancement of value conversion. The company is expected to achieve overtaking in corners and eventually change the track.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 646 respectively.

500 million, 683.

9 ppm and 733.

8 ppm, corresponding to 2 EPS.

29 yuan, 2.

42 yuan and 2.

60 yuan, maintain the “recommended” level.

Risk reminders: Downside risks to the domestic economy; risks of intensified trade disputes between the United States and China; risks of declining capital market conditions; risks of stricter financial supervision than expected; risks of weaker than expected liquidity; and lower-than-expected risks of premium income.

Seiko Steel Structure (600496) Company Research: EPC and Assembly Business Drive Fast Growth

Seiko Steel Structure (600496) Company Research: EPC and Assembly Business Drive Fast Growth
Leading private steel structure into a fast-growing period.The company is the leader of China’s private steel structure. In the field of traditional steel structures, the company has outstanding technology and brand advantages, and it has gradually opened the market with its prefabricated construction business.  In Q1-3 of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 7.3 billion yuan, a rapid growth of 31% over the same period of time; net profit attributable to mothers3.100 million US dollars, an increase of 110% ten years ago, continuing the rapid growth trend.The company’s traditional main business is expected to benefit from the prosperity and concentration of the steel structure industry. At the same time, it will vigorously develop EPC and prefabricated construction businesses to create new growth points, and it is expected to show better growth in the future.  Demand for steel structures is growing rapidly, and the industry’s supply and demand structure is improving, leading steel structures are expected to continue to benefit.Long-term policies continue to promote steel structure construction, coupled with rising labor costs, prompting rapid development of prefabricated buildings and increasing penetration of steel structure buildings. The current market size of steel structures has reached US $ 670 billion, and industry demand has grown rapidly.At the same time, after 2015, the transformation of steel prices has gradually increased, business reforms have increased, and environmental protection has been gradually tightened. The profits of some small and medium-sized steel companies have continued to shrink and gradually withdrew from the market.Private steel structure leaders are expected to continue to benefit.  Vigorously develop EPC business, help to improve the right to speak in the industrial chain, improve profitability and cash flow.The budget policy continuously encourages the promotion of the general engineering contracting (EPC) model. Compared to the traditional project management model, EPC can improve the coordination and unified design and construction, thereby achieving the effect of reducing project costs, shortening construction cycles and improving project quality, which is an important trend for the development of the industry.The company has been in the EPC field for many years and has accumulated a lot of business capabilities and management experience. It is expected to promote the layout of the industrial chain, improve profitability and cash flow by undertaking EPC business from “Party B’s Party B” to “Party B’s Party A”.At present, the company’s EPC orders in the vicinity of nearly 4 billion US dollars have begun to take shape, and it is expected to 南京夜网 become a new driving force for the company’s growth.  The strength of the green integrated building technology system is expected to benefit the tide of the fabricated building industry.The company’s green building integrated building system can provide design, processing, construction, installation and operation and maintenance of prefabricated buildings throughout the life cycle of engineering services, outstanding technical strength, and output technology through prefabricated technology cooperation, bringing new profit growth points.At present, the company has deployed three prefabricated construction industrial bases in East China, North China and South China with a wide range of radiation. After reaching full capacity, the total annual production capacity exceeds 10 million square meters, and the capacity reserve is available. The prefabricated construction will be continuously promoted in the future.  Investment suggestion: We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 19-21 will be 3 respectively.5/5.0/6.2 trillion, EPS is 0.19/0.28/0.34 yuan (18-21 years, CAGR is 51%), the current corresponding PE is 15 respectively.2/10.6/8.5 times. Considering that the company’s traditional steel structure business is expected to benefit from the industry’s prosperity and increased concentration, the EPC and prefabricated construction business are expected to grow faster and maintain a “Buy” rating.  Risk reminders: Downside risks of the steel structure industry boom, EPC and prefabricated construction business development are less than expected risks, risks of steel price fluctuations, and increased market competition risks.