Dismantling Zhongan Annual Report: Premiums are increasing rapidly, reducing the background behind narrowing

Dismantling Zhongan Annual Report: Premiums are increasing rapidly, reducing the “background” behind narrowing
The total premium for 2019 will increase by 30% annually to 146.At 29.6 billion, net profit narrowed by 74% and recorded 4.5.4 billion US dollars, this is the data disclosed by Zhongan’s first annual report after “changing the general”.The premium growth rate was about 89% in 2018, and Zhongan ‘s premium growth rate has improved.In the two trading days after the annual report was released on March 23, ZhongAn is expected to grow by 4 respectively.72%, 4.51%, Nomura, China Merchants International Securities, etc. raised Zhongan to buy rating.Since entering 2020, ZhongAn has experienced two rounds of continuous ups and downs.Adhering to the “rejuvenation”, expanding narrowing, and slowing down the growth rate of premiums, what is the “background” of ZhongAn, China’s first Internet insurance company?  Consumer finance is “fading” and two major business segments are supporting the rise in total premiumsNew types of insurance companies quickly became famous through shareholder advantages. “Return freight insurance” was the “knock brick” that initially opened the market.Today, this “brick” belongs to the ecological segment of consumer life.The other four major business sectors are juxtaposed, namely health, consumer finance, auto, consumer life and air travel.  Chen Jing, the former general manager of Zhongan, said in an exclusive interview with Sauna Nightnet in 2016, “In the early days of Zhongan, with the support of shareholders, we tried to return freight insurance in Taobao ecology, which opened a fast path for early exploration.Caused us to take a lot of detours.This is also an important reason why ZhongAn can grow rapidly.”We continue to provide risk protection for returns, product quality, logistics, after-sales service, merchant deposits and other risk protection for China’s mainstream e-commerce platforms (Taobao and Tmall, etc.), as an alternative to the market.”Zhongan said in its 2019 annual report that about 4 users of life-consumption ecological services are insured in 2019.4 billion, policy per capita 16.5 tickets, total premium 37 at the current period.29.4 billion, an annual increase of 130.8%.In the five major ecology, 130.8% is the largest premium increase.  In 2018, Zhong’an Life Consumer Ecosystem once faced a business scope, and the total premium dropped by 9 in that year.6%, not even the location of the largest source of premiums.At that time, the strongest increase was the consumer finance ecology.Through the provision of credit guarantee insurance and other products, the total premiums achieved by this sector accounted for 31%, surpassing the three major ecology of life consumption, travel and health in one fell swoop, and became the sector with the largest contribution of premiums. The premium exceeded the growth rate by 241%.Regarding the reduction of life consumption ecological premiums at that time, Zhong An explained that it was mainly because we actively reduced the underwriting quality replacement business in the digital business, and in addition, our share in the e-commerce ecosystem also decreased slightly.  This situation changed quietly the following year.The industry’s strict supervision and reform is strong, and the total premium of the consumer financial ecosystem has been replaced to 21%, and the premium substitution has been included in 12.2%.Zhongan also admitted in its annual report, “In 2019, in the face of downward pressure from the macro economy, a tighter regulatory environment and rising risks in the consumer finance industry, we proactively tightened risk control standards, strictly monitored asset risk performance, and simultaneously conducted businessThe scale, especially when working with Internet financial platforms, has greatly improved the entry level.The contraction of the consumer finance ecological business, which supports the rapid growth of Zhongan’s premiums, in addition to the consumer life ecology, there is another well-known sector-health ecology, which covers the “unlimited e-life” of medical insurance called “national medical insurance”.ZhongAn Health Ecosystem achieved a total premium of 48 last year.6.0 billion, an increase of 67 from the previous year.6%, corresponding to 33% of total premiums.  Throughout 2019, ZhongAn’s other two major eco-cars, the total premium of air travel started to account for 9%, and the corresponding premium increased by 10 each year.0% and -10.8%.  In the past few years, after the spread of major ecosystems, the scale of Zhongan premiums has increased year by year.In 2018, ZhongAn’s total premiums increased by 89% each year, and it became one of the 10 billion premium property and casualty insurance company clubs.Thanks to the support of the two famous business segments, Zhong An also achieved a total premium increase of up to 30% in 2019.Although the growth rate index dropped significantly in 2018, ZhongAn’s ranking in the national property and casualty insurance market has risen another place, temporarily ranking 11th.  Regarding the development planning of the five major sectors, on March 23, Jiang Xing, general manager and CEO of Zhongan, revealed in an interview with the media such as Sauna.com that Zhongan ‘s focus on the development of the five major ecological developments will not change, only the development path at different stages, The trend is different.In the future, the insurance business will continue to be developed around the five major ecosystems to provide users with comprehensive protection.However, health, consumer finance and automobiles are ecosystems that need to be more actively developed, because in these ecosystems Zhongan’s value chain has been extended, and ultimately a more balanced and diversified business structure will be realized.  ”In the actual development process, we will also consider the impact of the macroeconomic and policy environment, because risk has always been the most critical consideration in our business.Jiang Xing said.  The comprehensive cost rate has been falling for two years in a row. It is hoped that underwriting profit and loss in 2020 will be a big mountain for the invasion of small and medium-sized property insurance companies. Zhongan is no exception.  In fact, soon after its establishment, ZhongAn Insurance achieved profitability.From 2014 to 2016, ZhongAn Insurance’s net profit was approximately 3698 respectively.10,000 yuan, 4425.70,000 yuan, 937.20,000 yuan.However, ZhongAn Insurance appeared in 20179.The forecast of 9.6 billion US dollars will gradually increase to 17 in 2018.9.7 billion yuan.For the reasons for the growth of performance in 2018, ZhongAn attributed it to the increase in underwriting supplements, the decrease in total investment income and the expansion and expansion of technology export business.  In the 2019 performance report, these indicators have improved.The report shows that benefiting from the outstanding performance of the A-share market, Zhongan’s total investment return rate reached 9.3%, achieve 18.15.5 billion investment income.Improvement, due to the optimization of business structure and the improvement of operational efficiency, Zhongan ‘s comprehensive cost rate has been increased from 120 in 2018.9% improved to 113 in 2019.3%, underwriting expectations for 2019 narrowed to 16.98.8 billion.Ranked underwriting expectations for 2018 18.35.4 billion, a loss reduction of 1.36.6 billion, narrowed by 7 per year.4%.The technology export business will achieve operating income in 20192.69.7 billion, an increase of 139 in ten years9%, with a net profit of 3.34.3 billion, a loss reduction of 1 a year.7%.  The comprehensive cost rate is an indicator that reflects the cost of underwriting business of an insurance company, and is equal to the sum of the loss ratio and the expense ratio.In a simple sense, the comprehensive cost rate of insurance companies is less than 100%, which means that the underwriting business is profitable.On the contrary, underwriting commitments can only rely on investment income to feed back profits.  The reporter found out that through the optimization of business structure and the improvement of operational efficiency, Zhongan’s comprehensive cost rate continued to decline.In 2017, ZhongAn’s comprehensive cost rate increased from 104 in the previous year.7% rose to 133.1%.In 2018 and 2019, this indicator replaced 120 respectively.9% and 113.3%.  In an interview with reporters on March 23, Deng Ruimin, deputy general manager of Zhongan, said, “In 2019, we will be profitable in the insurance business, because our investment income is more than 1.8 billion, and underwriting may be 16 billion.”On the basis of the improvement of the above factors, in 2019, Zhongan obtained the net interest rate attributable to shareholders of the parent company.$ 54.1 billion, with a net profit of 17 in 2018.439 trillion US dollars, narrowed by 74% in real terms.  ”I hope that underwriting will be even in 2020, which is also the most important goal, and I am very confident about it.”Deng Ruimin said.  With a “good card” in one hand, what can we expect in the future?  The day after the publication of the annual report, the virtual bank initiated by ZhongAn in Hong Kong officially opened.  On March 24, Zhong An Bank Limited (ZA Bank) formally provided services to all Hong Kong citizens and became the first virtual bank to officially open in Hong Kong.At the same time, ZA Bank launched the current deposit product “ZA Current Go” and released the “30-minute loan commitment”.  According to ZA Bank, from the applicant submitting complete loan application data and documents to obtaining the approval result, the whole process can be completed within 30 minutes.If the waiting time of the applicant exceeds 30 minutes, ZA Bank will give 10 redeemed cash per minute according to the additional waiting time. The cash rebate will be converted until ZA Bank provides the final approval result, up to HKD500.  ZA Bank’s generosity also heralds Zhongan’s awareness of this scarce bank license.Jiang Xing revealed to reporters that the current management team and employee structure of ZA Bank is similar to ZhongAn Insurance. In addition to the core positions, personnel, systems and processes that need to match regulatory requirements, there are also technical personnel who operate technical scenarios for APP development.At present, Zhongan Insurance’s technology personnel account for 49%, and the proportion of technology product operation personnel in virtual banks is also very high, which is also different from traditional banks.  With the advent of ZA Bank, ZhongAn’s financial technology landscape has further developed.According to the disclosure, in addition to the Internet property insurance license and the virtual bank license, ZhongAn also obtained the Internet hospital license in July 2019, and the health insurance ecosystem of “insurance + medical” is more complete.In 2017, Zhongan Small Loan was established in Dazu District, Chongqing. This Internet small loan license also attracted China Telecom ‘s refusal to invest 2 last year.100 million yuan in shares.  Where will the “good card” Zhongan go?Zhongan Chairman Ou Yaping outlined Zhongan ‘s ecological vision in his annual report: We have launched a big blueprint around big health, big finance, and big consumption to create a closed loop of high-quality insurance services.  Sauna, Ye Pang, editor of Chen Peng, Sun Yong proofreading

Intime Resources (000975): The company’s performance meets expectations and is a steady force of the mine

Intime Resources (000975): The company’s performance meets expectations and is a steady force of the mine
Event: The company disclosed its semi-annual report for 2019, and its operating income increased by 20 per year.63%, attributable profits increased by 60 in ten years.65%, a non-profit increase of 67 in ten years.68%. Production and operation of the company’s major mines.Yulong Mining realized operating income 2.800 million, net profit1.300 million. At present, the technical transformation of the production system is progressing smoothly, and the image project has been completed more than 90%.Heihe Yintai comprehensively processed ore heads in the first half of the year11.54 for the first time, with an average grade of 19.89g / t, silver 142.91g / t, selling gold 1.76 tons, silver 9.78 tons, achieving a net profit of 3 trillion, of which open-pit to underground engineering will be completed by the end of 2019.Jilin Banmiaozi comprehensively processed ore 41 in the first half of the year.66 for the first time, with an average grade of 3 selected.07g / t, selling gold 1.11 tons, net profit is about 1.10,000 yuan.Qinghai Dachaidan Mining has officially started production on April 26, 2019, and currently has a production capacity of 2,500 tons / day. It will comprehensively process ore in the first half of 2019.10 samples, average grade 3 selected.66g / t, selling gold 0.40 tons, net profit is about 0.300 million. The prices of the company’s products have risen and fallen, and the prices of precious metals have gradually come out of the doldrums.In the first half of 2019, due to the impact of the Sino-US trade war, the price of gold continued to rise, and silver went out of the bottom, making up for the obvious increase, the base metal shock fluctuated downward, the price of lead was relatively stable, and the price of zinc gradually fell back after the high level.Among them, the price of 2019H1 gold, silver, zinc and lead increased by 15 each.27 yuan / gram, -60.76 yuan / kg, -3388 yuan / ton and -2431 yuan / ton. In Q2 2019, the prices of gold, silver, zinc and lead respectively increased by 5 from the previous month.96 yuan / gram, -127.43 yuan / ton, -392 yuan / ton and -1004 yuan / ton.Based on the latest price calculations, it is estimated that the company can achieve a profit of about 600 million yuan in the second half of the year. Precious metal prices are still in an upward channel.From the current point of view, the Fed will still cut interest rates 1-2 times during the year, and at the same time, the Sino-US trade war is constantly 北京夜网 repeating and has an escalation trend.In terms of the financial attributes of gold, in the context of the trade war and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, asset allocations point to gold, which is an interest-free safe haven. At the same time, the probability of the US economy gradually weakening, and the US dollar index will also fall.In terms of monetary attributes, countries may generally increase their holdings of gold to hedge against the depreciation of the US dollar, so we believe that the price of precious metals is still in an upward channel. Earnings and estimates.Maintain the company’s “Buy” rating and raise the company’s EPS to 0 in 2019-2021.53 yuan, 0.61 yuan and 0.67 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 28.6 times, 24.7 times and 22.7 times. Risk reminder: the price of precious metals drops, the grade of mines declines, and the progress of 杭州桑拿 mine commissioning is less than expected

Zhongnan Media (601098) 18th Annual Report Comment: The impact of Jiao Fu’s new policy fully reflects the improvement in performance and the expected proportion of dividends to a new high

Zhongnan Media (601098) 18th Annual Report Comment: The impact of Jiao Fu’s new policy fully reflects the improvement in performance and the expected proportion of dividends to a new high

Events: 1. The company announced 18-year results and achieved 95 revenue.

7.6 billion (YoY-7.

57%), net profit attributable to mother 12.

3.8 billion (YoY-18.

19%), deducting non-net profit of 10 from the mother.

9.9 billion (YoY-21.

95%); net cash flows from operating activities.

6.9 billion (YoY-35.


Gross profit margin 38.

72% (YoY-0.

24pct), net sales margin 14.

32% (YoY-1.


2. Business breakdown: Revenue from publishing business in 2016 was 24.

3.6 billion (YoY-14.

77%), gross margin of 30.

95% (+2 YoY).

92pct); revenue from issuing business 69.

9.3 billion (YoY-10.

82%), gross profit margin 29.

03% (YoY-1.

93pct); revenue from material business13.

2.2 billion (+35 compared to the same period last year).

67%), gross profit margin 4.

16% (YoY-0.

49pct); printing business achieved revenue 9.

610,000 yuan (an increase of 3.

53%), with a gross profit margin of 11.

76% (+0 year-on-year.

45pct); media business revenue 7.

6.9 billion (+8 year-on-year.

95%), gross margin 25.

91% (+0 compared to the same period last year).

88pct); digital publishing business realized revenue 2.

8.6 billion (YoY-24.

91%), gross margin of 20.

49% (+2 YoY).99pct); financial services income 4.

2.5 billion (+ 21% YoY).

85%), gross margin 68.

21% (+12.

09pct); the total number of internal offsets is 38.

3.3 billion.

Other business income 2.

1.7 billion (YoY-18.

47%), with a gross profit margin of 64.

77% (+ 23% YoY).


Opinions: 1. The performance is in line with expectations. In 18 years, affected by the New Educational Policy of Hunan Province, there was an overall increase in the 18Q4 single quarter interval, which gradually weakened the impact and is expected to achieve improvement.

In 18 years, the company’s revenue and profit have been significantly reduced, mainly due to the implementation of the new policy of teaching aid in Hunan in the second half of 2017, and the downward impact of the teaching aid business.

18 years of teaching materials published income 18.

31 ppm (YoY-19.

7%), the revenue from teaching materials is 41.

1.8 billion (YoY-19.


Q1-Q4’s single-quarter net profit attributable to mothers increased by -25 each year.

3% /-29.

8% /-20.

7% / 9.

8%, 18Q4 single quarter rebound ahead of schedule, is expected to achieve improvement.

Hunan Xinhua Bookstore actively responded to the impact of standardized market education and supplementary policies in the province, fully implemented the regional responsibility system, and carried out stalls and door-to-door service for all employees. The sales of market education and supplementary materials picked up in the fall, while children’s teaching materials were seized as newGrowth point, achieving sales code of over 100 million.

2. The company’s general book business revenue has grown significantly, and the general book publishing record has maintained the forefront of the book retail market.

The distribution system has continued to improve, while physical bookstores are being built and upgraded simultaneously, while actively expanding online sales.

18 years of general book publishing income5.

10,000 yuan (+16 compared with the same period last year).

14%), and general book distribution income18.

6.3 billion (+ 10% year-on-year.


According to open book data, the company’s market share in the country’s comprehensive book retail market is 3.

10%, ranking second.

The share of yards in the book retail market of physical stores nationwide increased by 3.

69%, ranking first in the square.

In 18 years, the company continued to increase the construction of brick-and-mortar bookstores. There were 81 new campus chain bookstores, the total number of which increased to 1062, and 32 new center stores.

3. The company continues to focus on product innovation and industry optimization, and has made progress in various aspects such as IP operations and digital education; media integration has continued to advance and operating performance has steadily improved.

18 years of media business revenue 7.

69 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

95%.The company continues to advance in the field of digital reading and audio products. It has launched a variety of audio programs, developed audio and video, and deepened IP operations. At the same time, the “Red Net Cloud” platform was launched on media convergence, enabling cloud platform feeds and central kitchen collection., The country’s first body-thousand-screen outdoor live broadcast system; the party and government clouds and the provincial direct network group have developed well, and reached a cooperation agreement with more than 70 counties and cities in the province on the construction of a county-level financial media center.

4. The account has sufficient cash, the financial company’s performance has continued to improve, and the dividend ratio has hit a record high.

The company plans to pay dividends for every 10 shares for 18 years.

1 yuan, the 成都桑拿网 dividend payout rate is 88.

5% (+ 17% YoY).


In 18 years, the company’s finance company achieved revenue4.

1.8 billion, net profit 3.

1.4 billion, an increase of 22 each year.

35%, 51.


As of the end of 18, the company’s monetary fund balance was 123.

4.1 billion.

5. Profit forecast and investment grade: We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in the years 19-21 will be 13 respectively.



840,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.



83 yuan, corresponding PE is 17/16 / 15X, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk reminders: policy risks, policy guidance for students to reduce their burden, teaching and publishing, changes in circulation, and development and improvement of teaching and teaching business.

Risks of technological 杭州夜网论坛 progress, development of digitalization and education informatization, and changes in the traditional book business landscape.

The decline in the birth rate, the decline in the number of new students, and the decline in the number of people have led to a decline in overall demand for books and a downside risk to the book industry.

New Hope (000876) Company Review: Pig and Chicken Resonance Outstanding Performance

New Hope (000876) Company Review: Pig and Chicken Resonance 北京夜网 Outstanding Performance

Event: New Hope announced the third quarter report of 2019, and the first three quarters achieved revenue of 569.

17 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

01 %%, net profit to mother 30.

71 ppm, an increase of 111 in ten years.

73%, net profit after deduction is 32.

USD 4.2 billion, an annual increase of 98.

29%; expected ROE is 13.


The prices of livestock and poultry are improving, and the prosperity of the breeding sector continues to increase.

Benefiting from the continued growth of poultry prices and pig prices, the profit of the feed and breeding sector increased significantly in the third quarter.

Among them, the profit of the feed + poultry segment is more than 700 million US dollars. We believe that under the influence of consumption substitution, the demand for poultry and livestock is expected to continue to improve, and the profit of the segment is expected to remain high.

In terms of hog breeding, the company’s hog sales volume was 102 in the third quarter.

530,000 heads, sales revenue increased by 20.

The total cost was slightly increased due to the sales volume of some 9.5 billion US dollars in the third quarter, including partly purchased piglets. It is estimated that the profit of pig breeding in the single quarter will be about 3 billion.

Productive biological assets increased significantly and capital expenditure doubled.

In the third quarter, the company’s productive biological assets increased to 9.

8.6 billion (an increase of 66.

(6%, previously increased 86%), mainly due to the increase in productive biological assets of the pig breeding industry. We gradually increased the company’s breeding pig inventory to more than 200,000 in the third quarter.

In terms of capital expenditure, the company’s capital expenditure amount increased to 54.

56 million, an increase of 112 per year.


Among them, capital expenditure is mainly used to expand the scale of pig farming. We believe that changes in productive biological assets and capital expenditures significantly reflect the company’s determination and execution of active pig farming operations. It is expected that the company’s production volume in 2020 is expected to achieve significantPromotion.

Based on comprehensive judgment, we expect that the number of pigs slaughtered in 19-20 is expected to reach 3.5 million / 8 million heads, with an annual growth rate of 37% / 129%.

At the same time, benefiting from the boom in poultry prices, the profitability of the poultry and feed sectors has been maintained.

We expect the company’s net profit to be 4.9 billion / 13.2 billion in 19-20, and maintain the “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of large-scale epidemic disease or the risk of public health security events, the price of raw materials changes sharply, and the price of pigs or chickens drops sharply.

Guotai Junan (601211): Personal Transformation Institutions Breakthrough and Full Growth

Guotai Junan (601211): Personal Transformation Institutions Breakthrough and Full Growth

Strive for progress while maintaining a stable leading position.

In 2019H1, the company realized operating income of 14.1 billion yuan (YoY + 23%), net profit attributable to its parent of 5 billion yuan (YoY + 25%), and EPS 0.

54 yuan / share, ROE 4.

03% (+0 year-on-year.

8pt), adjusted leverage ratio 2.

3 times.

Excluding the one-time gain or loss from the disposal of 51% of Guolian’an Fund in 2018Q16.

6.4 billion, the company’s adjusted operating income, net profit growth rate of 30%, 50% each year.

  In 2019H1, Guotai Junan Institutional Finance, Personal Finance, Investment Management, and International Business contributed net income of 49% / 22% / 22% / 9%, respectively, which were +36% / + 21% / + 4% / + 38% year-on-year.

  In an active market, investment and asset management have grown together.

1) The positioning of the capital market hub has clearly brought new development and changes to the securities industry since the beginning of the year, driving market sentiment. In the first half of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and GEM Index closed up 19% / 27% / 21% respectively.

It is estimated that Monarch’s self-operated business income was 4.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 50%; of which, the fair value changed from negative to positive, from last year -800 million to this year +800 million.

2) As of the end of June, the monarch’s asset management scale was US $ 763.7 billion, an increase of 2% against the trend at the end of the previous year.

The scale of active management increased by 1 compared with the end of the previous year.

7%, the proportion increased to 53%.

Under the optimization of the structure, the net income of the asset management business was YoY + 8%, which was greater than the scale growth rate.

  Adhere to the transformation of wealth management and differentiated development of credit business.

1) Brokerage business: The net income of the brokerage business in 19H1 was 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24% and accounting for 22% of total revenue.

Among them, the agency’s net income from securities business (including seat leasing) was 29 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 26%.

The market share of the trading market remains the first in the industry, but there are a total of 5.

8% lower than the beginning of the year.

3pt, commission rate is still subdivided into 0.


2) Adhering to the transformation of wealth management.

In terms of technology application, the number of users of Junhong app on the mobile terminal at the end of the period exceeded 31.7 million, an increase of 4 from the end of the previous year.

3%, monthly activity ranks top 2 in the industry.

As for the investment consulting team, the number of investment consultants was 2,380, an increase of 11% over the end of the previous year, and the average monthly scale of consignment products was 1,555 trillion, an increase of 9% over the previous year.

2) Credit business: The balance of margin financing and securities lending continued to rebound since bottoming out in 2018. The book value of 19H1 was US $ 54.8 billion, an increase of 20% over the beginning of the year;Performance guarantee ratio is 235%.

Capital was raised at the end of the period, and the proportion of impairment allowances on financial assets purchased under resale agreements was 1 respectively.

51%, 3.

17%, with sufficient and sufficient accrual, and the subsequent follow-up as the market gradually stabilizes, it is expected that the impairment losses will continue to reverse.

  Investment bank bonds performed well.

In 2019H1, the company’s investment banking business program fees and commission net income was 11 trillion, an increase of 1% year-on-year, turning to the continued negative growth of the business since 2017.

Securities sponsorship business and financial advisory business were the main growth drivers, growing 49% / 37% respectively.

According to the company announcement, 2019H1 Guotai Junan realized equity financing of 23 billion yuan (YoY-59%) and bond financing of 170 billion yuan (YoY + 97%).

  As the effectiveness of the new rules for mergers and acquisitions and restructuring expands, and the acceleration of the science and technology board, the company’s investment banking business will be further strengthened.

  The policy dividend was accelerated and leading brokerage firms took the lead.

The company’s industry leading strength is strong. In the first half of 2019, the company’s operating income, net profit, total assets, net assets and net capital average ranked second in the industry.With the enhanced release of policy dividends, it will seize business opportunities.

  As of the announcement date of the 19H1 financial report, the company has successively announced corporate bonds, H-share placements, short-term financing bonds, financial bond issuance plans, and 苏州桑拿网 gradually optimized asset and liability structure in 2019 to accumulate capital for business operations.Expand and achieve balanced and diversified development.

The company’s 2019 PB is expected to be 1.

2 times, currently at an estimated low level, maintaining the recommended level.

  Risk Warning: The policy advances less than expected, and the market fluctuates greatly.

Kevin Education (002659): Performance turning point or coming

Kevin Education (00四川耍耍网2659): Performance turning point or coming

Event: The company released its annual report and realized revenue in 20182.

4.2 billion, down 61.

01%, net profit attributable to mother-0.

9.8 billion, with a decrease of 521.

14%, deducting non-returning mother -1.

0.6 billion, a decrease of 28.


Basic yield -0.

2 yuan.

Opinion: Education business income increased by 127%.

In November 2017, the company divested the axial steel structure business, and the education business became the main business.

Education business contributed revenue in 2018 2.

09 million yuan, an increase of 127%, accounting for 86% of total revenue.

34%, including tuition and miscellaneous income1.

910,000 yuan, an increase of 139%, income from training fees is 0.

1.8 billion, an increase of 50%.

In addition, the rental fee contributes zero income.

3.3 billion, accounting for 13 of total revenue.


The number of students increased by 64%, with a net increase of 475.

In the 18/19 school year, a total of 1221 students were enrolled in the two schools, an increase of 64% and a net increase of 475.

Haidian School started in September 2016 with a capacity of 1500 people. It is the third academic year of operation with more than 700 students. Chaoyang School opened in September 2017 with a capacity of 4,000 people. It is currently the second school year of operation.There are more than 500 students at school.

Since the two schools are still in the early stages of school construction, they need to strictly control the quality of their students to create a brand. Therefore, each school has an admissions control of 200 to 300 people. Haidian School has obtained AP certification and has become an IB certification school through Chaoyang School (expected 2021Year) and the continuous improvement of the brand influence of the two schools, and the enrollment scale increased.

19 years is expected to usher in a turning point in performance.

18 years to achieve net profit attributable to mother-0.

US $ 9.8 billion, mainly due to the significant increase in depreciation brought about by the consolidation of Chaoyang School. Depreciation in this period has an impact of approximately 9829.

39 thousand yuan.

  Haidian School has generated positive school running surpluses in 18 years, Chaoyang School strives to generate positive school running surpluses in 20 years. If the two international schools are overlapped and calculated, it is expected to generate a positive school running surplus in 19 years.

Investment suggestion: The company is expected to usher in an inflection point in performance in 19 years, relying on the Haidian District SASAC, with prominent educational resources, fully exploiting existing opportunities for cooperation with internationally renowned institutions and clubs, and expanding quality education and training.

Net profit is expected to be zero in 2019/20/21.



4.5 billion.

The overall utilization of the two schools will exceed 80% in 2023, and the net profit will reach 4 at that time.

6 billion, after considering the additional issue, the market value is about 5.5 billion, and it is estimated to be only 12 times.

Risk reminder: International school enrollment is less than expected; brand export business, quality education and training projects are less than expected.

Hualan Biological (002007) 2019Q3 Review: Flu vaccine boosts performance slightly beyond expectations

Hualan Biological (002007) 2019Q3 Review: Flu vaccine 杭州夜网论坛 boosts performance slightly beyond expectations

Guoyuan’s point of view: The gross profit margin has increased significantly. The net profit margin is the best reported growth rate in the past two years. The company’s gross profit margin increased in the first three quarters of 63.

41% (+2.

13 pct), the management expense ratio dropped slightly to 5.

85% (-0.

31pct), the sales expense ratio performance is stable, is 11.

12%, almost unchanged from the same period last year; net interest rate increased significantly to 38.

50% (+1.

01pct), the highest level in the past two years.

The blood product industry is in short supply, and the vaccine remains the only domestic database issued in accordance with the national yuan approval. The company’s blood products in the first three quarters of 2019 showed stable performance and achieved batch 458 approval.

30,000 bottles, of which Jing Bing has completed 84 issued in 2018.

65%; eight factors, albumin and break free all achieved 60% + of the number of last year’s approvals. At present, the overall inventory of the blood product industry has decreased, the product is tight, and the prosperity has increased.

The company approved 406 trivalent influenza in the first three quarters of 2019.

590,000, which has exceeded the highest 20% of last year, tetravalent influenza was approved 462.

0.6 million sticks, 90% of last year’s completion.

At present, we maintain the advantages of exclusive influenza vaccine and capacity expansion. We expect that the company’s quadrivalent influenza vaccine is expected to achieve 8-10 million sales this year, and the vaccine sector is expected to drive rapid growth in performance.

Liangping Station has been approved for slurry extraction, and the volume of slurry extraction is expected to reach more than 1,000 tons. The company’s Liangping Station has obtained a single-use plasma license (newly qualified in March this year).It has 26 pulp station resources. Last year’s pulp extraction volume was 980 tons. It is expected that this year’s pulp extraction volume will help maintain growth and reach the level of more than 1,000 tons.

Investment advice and profit forecast Hualan Biological has high pulp extraction and production efficiency, and vaccines and monoclonal antibodies help new growth.

Considering the volume of the company’s influenza vaccine, we expect the company’s operating income in 19-21 to be 41.



98 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.

50% / 20.

72% / 16.

40%, net profit attributable to mother 14.



84 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.

34% / 20.

15% / 15.

94%, EPS trim is 1.

07 (+0.

05) / 1.

29 (+0.

09) / 1.

49 (+0.

11) Yuan / share, corresponding to PE34 / 28/24 times, and the target price is raised to 45.

15 yuan, give a “buy” rating.

Risks indicate that the extraction volume is less than expected, product safety risks, and policy risks.

Tianmu Lake (603136) 19Q1 Quarterly Report Review: First Quarter Results Meet Expectations Optimistic for Expansion of Company

Tianmu Lake (603136) 19Q1 Quarterly Report Review: First Quarter Results Meet Expectations Optimistic for Expansion of Company

Event: The company released the 19Q1 quarterly report, and achieved revenue of 88.86 million yuan / -1 in 2019Q1.

39%, net profit attributable to mother 15 million / -14.

93%, net profit after deduction is 14.82 million / + 9.

06%, basically in line with expectations.

19Q1 deducted non-performance ten-year value-added.

06%, basically in line with expectations.

The first-quarter performance only accounted for about 15% of the expected, which had a weak effect on the expected performance indicators.

The company’s 19Q1 revenue was 88.86 million, surpassing the slight decline of 1.

39%, weak demand in the first quarter; net profit attributable to mothers was 15 million, and it will decrease by 14 in the future.

93%, mainly because the net profit from continuing operations increased by 1.23 million to 14.82 million over the same period of the previous year. The non-recurring income of government subsidy entities decreased by 3.86 million to 180,000 from the same period last year.

06%, mainly because the increase in gross profit margin was greater than the increase in expense ratio, which increased the profit margin.

As the economy gradually improves, it is expected that the rebound in demand in the next quarter is expected to drive the company’s performance to gradually rise.

1Q1 gross margin rose by 1 per second.

9pct to 58.

1%, during which the rate increases by 1 per 南京夜网 second.

0 points to 34.


1Q1 gross profit of 51.65 million / + 1.

92%, gross profit margin 58.

13% / + 1.

89pct is expected to increase the proportion of hotels and attractions business with high gross profit margins.

The expense ratio was 34 during 1Q1.

10% / + 1.

01pct, where the sales / management / financial expense ratios are 13 respectively.

56% / 19.

00% / 1.

54%, a rise of 0.


61 / -1.

11pct, the increase in sales expenses is expected to be mainly used for channel expansion, the increase in management expenses is mainly due to wage growth, and the decrease in financial expenses is mainly due to loan repayment.

Seasonal downgrade of net cash flows from operating activities 4.

7%. Net cash flow / net profit from operating activities also increased compared to the same period last 深圳spa会所 year.

1Q1 Net cash flow from operating activities is downgraded by 4 every six months.

From 7% to 25.24 million, the decline in cash flow was lower than the decrease in net profit, and the ratio of net cash flow to net profit of operating activities in 1Q1 was 1.

59 times, compared to 1.

A 43-fold increase, if considering the situation for two consecutive quarters, the net cash flow / net profit ratio of operating activities in 18Q4 + 19Q1 is ranked 2.

25 times, compared with 1 of 17Q4 + 18Q1.
78 times also improved significantly, indicating that the company’s operating cash flow situation is better, and the quality of operating performance is higher.
The construction of the second phase of the Yushui Hot Spring project is progressing, and after the adjustment of the convertible bond project, it attempts to accelerate the issuance of the issuance.

The company’s IPO fund-raising projects accelerated. In 2018, 19Q1 projects under construction added 9.3 million and 10.09 million, respectively, mainly due to the construction of the Yushui Hot Spring Phase II Zhuxigu project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2019.Contributed 35 to 39 million.

In addition, the company issued a convertible debt plan on March 8, 19, and issued an adjustment plan on April 4, changing part of the project construction and transformation into hotel project construction and transformation, namely Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and Yushui Hot Spring (Phase I) Renovation and renovation projects. The gradual speed of new projects will be accelerated, which is expected to accelerate the issuance of convertible bonds.

IPO investment and convertible bond project investment have brought a high degree of certainty, and expansion from different places has achieved from 1 to N: imagination space.

In terms of local investment, it is expected that the IPO investment / convertible bond projects will be put into operation at the end of 2019/20 respectively, and the total incremental performance in 2020/21 will contribute 0.


85 billion.

In terms of expansion in other places, the company’s ability to deeply cultivate a single scenic spot has been verified. It will focus its strategy on “light luxury leisure destination operators” and seize the high-potential market through acquisitions, mergers, and entrusted management. The layout of the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu and Chongqing, Wuhan, Changsha and other core city groups, to achieve market expansion from 1 to N.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: It is estimated that the company’s net profit after deducting non-profit in 19-21 will be 1.



6.6 billion, a growth rate of 37% / 45% / 42%, a compound annual growth rate of 44%, corresponding to PE is 20/14/10 times.

Considering the company’s expansion growth and expected safety margin, we believe that its reasonable market value in 19 years is 5.2 billion, with a target price of 44 yuan (after the increase), corresponding to a PE valuation of 40 times, and maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of attraction tickets and ropeway charging standards, force majeure risk, change risk, franchise renewal risk, security risk, macroeconomic risk.

Huatian Technology (002185) Company Review: Performance Recovery and Restructuring Industry Turning Point Validated

Huatian Technology (002185) Company Review: Performance Recovery and Restructuring Industry Turning Point Validated

Event: The company issued a Q3 performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the mother in the first three quarters1.


78 ppm for the same period last year.

2.7 billion down 45.

75% -49.

72%; In Q3, the net profit attributable to the mother in the single quarter was 79-92 million yuan, 1 in the same period of the previous year.

17 percent 21.

31% -32.

43%, an increase of 14 from the previous quarter.

57% -33.


Comments: Q3 achieved the entire first half profit, and the performance is still recovering.

The company’s net profit attributable to its parent in Q3 was 79 million to 92 million yuan, and H1 was 85.61 million yuan. That is to say, the net profit achieved in the third quarter was comparable to the entire first half.

With the recovery of the industry, the company’s performance recovered significantly, an increase of 14 from the previous quarter.


43%, the year-on-year decline also obviously narrowed quarter by quarter.

Due to the high cost of acquiring Unisem and the financial costs of the borrowings used, the company’s Q3 net profit was lower than market expectations, but if these one-time effects were excluded, it was in line with market expectations.

The turning point of the industrial recovery has arrived, and the company’s Q4 performance is expected to continue to improve.

The development trend of advanced packaging is good, and new technologies need to be ramped up.

In terms of volume, the company’s wafer-level integrated circuit package volume growth in 2019H1 is considerable at 39.

40,000 pieces, an annual increase of 48.

31%; At the same time increase the target customer order and new customer development work, 55 new customers, 3 new Fan-Out packaging technology-based process development and mass production customers.

In terms of technology, the company completed the development of fan-out packaging technology for the first-level gallium chip in H1 in 2019, and is currently in the testing phase; TSV packaging products have passed high-end security reliability certification and entered the small-volume production stage, which needs to be released.

Successfully acquired Unisem and gained important European and American customer resources.

The company successfully acquired UNISEM, a world-renowned Malaysian semiconductor packaging and testing supplier.

UNISEM is a well-known Malaysian OSAT company with a wide range of customer sources. Its European and American market revenues exceed 60%. Its main partners, Broadcom, Qorvo, and Skyworks, are strong and can be said to be the world’s leading RF solution providers.

After Unisem joins Chinese companies, it is expected to further deepen the cooperation with customers in related markets. For example, most of Skyworks’ main customers ‘revenues flow into mainland China. After the merger and acquisition is completed, the synergy of upstream and downstream cooperation is expected to become more prominent, and the market prospect is broad.

Investment suggestion: Considering the severance pay incurred by Unisem’s factory closure in Indonesia in the third and fourth quarters, the EPS in 2019 will be changed from 0.

16 yuan down to 0.

11 yuan; taking into account the good trend of industrial recovery, maintain the company’s expectations for 2020-2021 EPS, respectively, are 0.

27, 0.

37 yuan / share.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Uncertainty in trade friction; industry recovery is less than expected; new technology landing / volume is less than expected

Sanda Membrane (688101) Company Research: Expansion of experts in the whole industry chain with broad membrane technology market

Sanda Membrane (688101) Company Research: Expansion of experts in the whole industry chain with broad membrane technology market

The company’s membrane industry is a science and technology innovation enterprise with leading technology and rich project experience.

The company’s founder is Dr. Lan Weiguang, Vice Chairman of China Membrane Industry Association.

Since its establishment 14 years ago, Sunda Membrane has formed a membrane industry chain covering “membrane materials-membrane modules-membrane equipment-membrane software-membrane applications”. Among them, the downstream involves industrial material-liquid separation, wastewater recycling, infiltration and safety assurance., Food and beverage, pharmaceutical and chemical, biological fermentation, metallurgy and petrochemical, water purification and other industries, with a wide range of applications, the company as China’s membrane technology leader, leading technology, rich project experience, landing on science and technology board to promote acceleration in the membrane technology marketExpansion.

The membrane industry has a market space of more than 20 billion, has a wide range of applications, and has ample import substitution space.

According to statistics from the Institute of Advanced Materials Research (GGII), the composite strength of China’s water treatment membrane output value from 2013 to 2017 was 18%.

It is estimated that the market space in 2019 will exceed 20 billion, mainly in the application areas of industrial material-liquid separation, sewage treatment and seawater desalination. Through the promotion of cleaner production and energy-saving solutions, the industry will usher in a period of rapid development.

From the perspective of the industry structure, China ‘s membrane treatment product sector accounts for a large proportion of imports. For example, foreign brands that subdivide products for reverse osmosis membranes account for more than 90%, and the domestic substitution process has accelerated.

The company’s membrane products have prominent advantages, stable water investment and strong competitiveness.

The company’s main membrane technology application and water investment and operation, R & D expense rate is more than 5%, 360 units of sales equipment / set conversion, project experience.

①In terms of membrane technology application, the company has a relatively high market share in industrial material-liquid separation in the pharmaceutical and bio-fermentation fields. In the petrochemical industry, the market share of PTA membrane water treatment exceeds 60%.

② In terms of investment and operation of water affairs, as of the first half of 2019, the company’s scale of operating municipal sewage 78 per day / sewage water price increased to zero.

95 yuan / ton (0 in 2018.

86 yuan / ton), water investment is steady.

Fund-raising projects are mainly invested in the manufacture of membrane materials and complete sets of equipment, and the strength of membrane processing is further enhanced.

In the IPO of the science and technology innovation board, the company raised funds mainly for inorganic ceramic nanofilters and 淡水桑拿网 water purifier production line projects, nanofiltration membrane material preparation and complete membrane equipment manufacturing base projects, special separation membranes and complete equipment preparation and production projectsThe membrane material and technology R & D center project and the construction of the R & D center, the commissioning of the new production line will greatly enhance the company’s comprehensive capabilities of membrane products.

Investment suggestion: The company’s reasonable PE estimate for 2019 is above 30X.

From the perspective of comparable companies, a comparable company mainly includes Kugo Hi-Tech, Jinmo Technology, and Bishuiyuan.

Hisao Hi-Tech is close to the company’s business, and its 2019 PE forecast is 28.


As the industry leader, the company is expected to grow faster than the industry in 2019-2021. We believe that the company’s reasonable PE is expected to exceed 30 times in 2019.

Risk Warning: 1.

The actual sewage treatment gradually approaches the agreed basic water volume, the investment cost of water affairs increases, and the gross profit margin decreases.


The decline in environmental engineering revenue and the company’s contraction strategy have had a certain adverse impact on overall revenue and performance.


Accounts receivable accounted for a high proportion.