Tianmu Lake (603136) 19Q1 Quarterly Report Review: First Quarter Results Meet Expectations Optimistic for Expansion of Company
Event: The company released the 19Q1 quarterly report, and achieved revenue of 88.86 million yuan / -1 in 2019Q1.
39%, net profit attributable to mother 15 million / -14.
93%, net profit after deduction is 14.82 million / + 9.
06%, basically in line with expectations.
19Q1 deducted non-performance ten-year value-added.
06%, basically in line with expectations.
The first-quarter performance only accounted for about 15% of the expected, which had a weak effect on the expected performance indicators.
The company’s 19Q1 revenue was 88.86 million, surpassing the slight decline of 1.
39%, weak demand in the first quarter; net profit attributable to mothers was 15 million, and it will decrease by 14 in the future.
93%, mainly because the net profit from continuing operations increased by 1.23 million to 14.82 million over the same period of the previous year. The non-recurring income of government subsidy entities decreased by 3.86 million to 180,000 from the same period last year.
06%, mainly because the increase in gross profit margin was greater than the increase in expense ratio, which increased the profit margin.
As the economy gradually improves, it is expected that the rebound in demand in the next quarter is expected to drive the company’s performance to gradually rise.
1Q1 gross margin rose by 1 per second.
9pct to 58.
1%, during which the rate increases by 1 per 南京夜网 second.
0 points to 34.
1Q1 gross profit of 51.65 million / + 1.
92%, gross profit margin 58.
13% / + 1.
89pct is expected to increase the proportion of hotels and attractions business with high gross profit margins.
The expense ratio was 34 during 1Q1.
10% / + 1.
01pct, where the sales / management / financial expense ratios are 13 respectively.
56% / 19.
00% / 1.
54%, a rise of 0.
61 / -1.
11pct, the increase in sales expenses is expected to be mainly used for channel expansion, the increase in management expenses is mainly due to wage growth, and the decrease in financial expenses is mainly due to loan repayment.
Seasonal downgrade of net cash flows from operating activities 4.
7%. Net cash flow / net profit from operating activities also increased compared to the same period last 深圳spa会所 year.
1Q1 Net cash flow from operating activities is downgraded by 4 every six months.
From 7% to 25.24 million, the decline in cash flow was lower than the decrease in net profit, and the ratio of net cash flow to net profit of operating activities in 1Q1 was 1.
59 times, compared to 1.
A 43-fold increase, if considering the situation for two consecutive quarters, the net cash flow / net profit ratio of operating activities in 18Q4 + 19Q1 is ranked 2.
25 times, compared with 1 of 17Q4 + 18Q1.
78 times also improved significantly, indicating that the company’s operating cash flow situation is better, and the quality of operating performance is higher.
The construction of the second phase of the Yushui Hot Spring project is progressing, and after the adjustment of the convertible bond project, it attempts to accelerate the issuance of the issuance.
The company’s IPO fund-raising projects accelerated. In 2018, 19Q1 projects under construction added 9.3 million and 10.09 million, respectively, mainly due to the construction of the Yushui Hot Spring Phase II Zhuxigu project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2019.Contributed 35 to 39 million.
In addition, the company issued a convertible debt plan on March 8, 19, and issued an adjustment plan on April 4, changing part of the project construction and transformation into hotel project construction and transformation, namely Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and Yushui Hot Spring (Phase I) Renovation and renovation projects. The gradual speed of new projects will be accelerated, which is expected to accelerate the issuance of convertible bonds.
IPO investment and convertible bond project investment have brought a high degree of certainty, and expansion from different places has achieved from 1 to N: imagination space.
In terms of local investment, it is expected that the IPO investment / convertible bond projects will be put into operation at the end of 2019/20 respectively, and the total incremental performance in 2020/21 will contribute 0.
In terms of expansion in other places, the company’s ability to deeply cultivate a single scenic spot has been verified. It will focus its strategy on “light luxury leisure destination operators” and seize the high-potential market through acquisitions, mergers, and entrusted management. The layout of the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu and Chongqing, Wuhan, Changsha and other core city groups, to achieve market expansion from 1 to N.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: It is estimated that the company’s net profit after deducting non-profit in 19-21 will be 1.
6.6 billion, a growth rate of 37% / 45% / 42%, a compound annual growth rate of 44%, corresponding to PE is 20/14/10 times.
Considering the company’s expansion growth and expected safety margin, we believe that its reasonable market value in 19 years is 5.2 billion, with a target price of 44 yuan (after the increase), corresponding to a PE valuation of 40 times, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk reminder: the risk of attraction tickets and ropeway charging standards, force majeure risk, change risk, franchise renewal risk, security risk, macroeconomic risk.