Hualan Biological (002007) 2019Q3 Review: Flu vaccine boosts performance slightly beyond expectations

Hualan Biological (002007) 2019Q3 Review: Flu vaccine 杭州夜网论坛 boosts performance slightly beyond expectations

Guoyuan’s point of view: The gross profit margin has increased significantly. The net profit margin is the best reported growth rate in the past two years. The company’s gross profit margin increased in the first three quarters of 63.

41% (+2.

13 pct), the management expense ratio dropped slightly to 5.

85% (-0.

31pct), the sales expense ratio performance is stable, is 11.

12%, almost unchanged from the same period last year; net interest rate increased significantly to 38.

50% (+1.

01pct), the highest level in the past two years.

The blood product industry is in short supply, and the vaccine remains the only domestic database issued in accordance with the national yuan approval. The company’s blood products in the first three quarters of 2019 showed stable performance and achieved batch 458 approval.

30,000 bottles, of which Jing Bing has completed 84 issued in 2018.

65%; eight factors, albumin and break free all achieved 60% + of the number of last year’s approvals. At present, the overall inventory of the blood product industry has decreased, the product is tight, and the prosperity has increased.

The company approved 406 trivalent influenza in the first three quarters of 2019.

590,000, which has exceeded the highest 20% of last year, tetravalent influenza was approved 462.

0.6 million sticks, 90% of last year’s completion.

At present, we maintain the advantages of exclusive influenza vaccine and capacity expansion. We expect that the company’s quadrivalent influenza vaccine is expected to achieve 8-10 million sales this year, and the vaccine sector is expected to drive rapid growth in performance.

Liangping Station has been approved for slurry extraction, and the volume of slurry extraction is expected to reach more than 1,000 tons. The company’s Liangping Station has obtained a single-use plasma license (newly qualified in March this year).It has 26 pulp station resources. Last year’s pulp extraction volume was 980 tons. It is expected that this year’s pulp extraction volume will help maintain growth and reach the level of more than 1,000 tons.

Investment advice and profit forecast Hualan Biological has high pulp extraction and production efficiency, and vaccines and monoclonal antibodies help new growth.

Considering the volume of the company’s influenza vaccine, we expect the company’s operating income in 19-21 to be 41.

98/50.

67/58.

98 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.

50% / 20.

72% / 16.

40%, net profit attributable to mother 14.

96/17.

98/20.

84 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.

34% / 20.

15% / 15.

94%, EPS trim is 1.

07 (+0.

05) / 1.

29 (+0.

09) / 1.

49 (+0.

11) Yuan / share, corresponding to PE34 / 28/24 times, and the target price is raised to 45.

15 yuan, give a “buy” rating.

Risks indicate that the extraction volume is less than expected, product safety risks, and policy risks.