Kevin Education (00四川耍耍网2659): Performance turning point or coming
Event: The company released its annual report and realized revenue in 20182.
4.2 billion, down 61.
01%, net profit attributable to mother-0.
9.8 billion, with a decrease of 521.
14%, deducting non-returning mother -1.
0.6 billion, a decrease of 28.
Basic yield -0.
Opinion: Education business income increased by 127%.
In November 2017, the company divested the axial steel structure business, and the education business became the main business.
Education business contributed revenue in 2018 2.
09 million yuan, an increase of 127%, accounting for 86% of total revenue.
34%, including tuition and miscellaneous income1.
910,000 yuan, an increase of 139%, income from training fees is 0.
1.8 billion, an increase of 50%.
In addition, the rental fee contributes zero income.
3.3 billion, accounting for 13 of total revenue.
The number of students increased by 64%, with a net increase of 475.
In the 18/19 school year, a total of 1221 students were enrolled in the two schools, an increase of 64% and a net increase of 475.
Haidian School started in September 2016 with a capacity of 1500 people. It is the third academic year of operation with more than 700 students. Chaoyang School opened in September 2017 with a capacity of 4,000 people. It is currently the second school year of operation.There are more than 500 students at school.
Since the two schools are still in the early stages of school construction, they need to strictly control the quality of their students to create a brand. Therefore, each school has an admissions control of 200 to 300 people. Haidian School has obtained AP certification and has become an IB certification school through Chaoyang School (expected 2021Year) and the continuous improvement of the brand influence of the two schools, and the enrollment scale increased.
19 years is expected to usher in a turning point in performance.
18 years to achieve net profit attributable to mother-0.
US $ 9.8 billion, mainly due to the significant increase in depreciation brought about by the consolidation of Chaoyang School. Depreciation in this period has an impact of approximately 9829.
39 thousand yuan.
Haidian School has generated positive school running surpluses in 18 years, Chaoyang School strives to generate positive school running surpluses in 20 years. If the two international schools are overlapped and calculated, it is expected to generate a positive school running surplus in 19 years.
Investment suggestion: The company is expected to usher in an inflection point in performance in 19 years, relying on the Haidian District SASAC, with prominent educational resources, fully exploiting existing opportunities for cooperation with internationally renowned institutions and clubs, and expanding quality education and training.
Net profit is expected to be zero in 2019/20/21.
The overall utilization of the two schools will exceed 80% in 2023, and the net profit will reach 4 at that time.
6 billion, after considering the additional issue, the market value is about 5.5 billion, and it is estimated to be only 12 times.
Risk reminder: International school enrollment is less than expected; brand export business, quality education and training projects are less than expected.